January air cargo opens softer as Lunar New Year nears

Asia

As the new year begins, overall air freight demand is easing from December levels across both general cargo and ecommerce shipments. Demand remains resilient in select sectors, particularly semiconductors, cryptocurrency-related cargo, and artificial intelligence equipment. These segments continue to support volumes, especially on U.S.-bound lanes. Project cargo requiring charter aircraft is also showing early signs of softening.

From a capacity perspective, airlines are expected to continue rationalizing networks to support market rates, particularly toward the latter half of January 2026. Looking ahead, demand is anticipated to rebound in late January as shippers position cargo ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China, which begin in mid-February 2026.

Regional highlights

Asia to North America

Forecast: Demand for air cargo from Asia to the United States is expected to soften through mid-January before rebounding in late January as shippers accelerate volumes ahead of the Lunar New Year. Semiconductor, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence shipments should continue to support demand, though at lower levels than seen in December. Capacity tightening later in the month could place upward pressure on rates.

Market dynamics: The early-January slowdown reflects typical post-holiday seasonality. In response, airlines are actively managing capacity through frequency reductions and aircraft redeployments to support rate stability ahead of the anticipated pre–Lunar New Year demand surge in late January.

Asia to Europe

Forecast: Market conditions are expected to remain relatively calm through mid-January as European offices and factories reopen following holiday closures. Demand is forecast to rebound sharply from late January into early February as shippers accelerate cargo ahead of Lunar New Year factory closures and holiday-related production slowdowns. Capacity is expected to remain sufficient to meet softer early-January demand across both North Asia and Southeast Asia.

Market dynamics: Volumes typically ease in early January as European customer activity remains subdued during the holiday period. Airlines are trimming capacity into Europe to better align with demand, contributing to softer market rates. Spot pricing opportunities may emerge as carriers compete for available cargo. A late-January rebound is expected, driven by time-sensitive shipments ahead of Lunar New Year production halts.

Key takeaways

Shippers moving cargo from Asia should plan and book early to mitigate potential capacity constraints and rate increases as demand builds toward late January. With the Lunar New Year shutdown beginning in mid-February 2026, urgency is expected to increase, making advanced planning essential. For Europe-bound shipments, early-January softness may present cost-saving opportunities, though tightening conditions are likely as the month progresses.

North America

The U.S. export air freight market is expected to contract in January relative to December, with most markets experiencing relatively open capacity. While December saw pockets of constraint on lanes to South America and Singapore, those pressures are anticipated to ease in January. The market is settling into a post-holiday rhythm, marked by reduced urgency and improved space availability across most destinations.

Regional highlights

North America to Asia

Forecast: Capacity constraints seen in December are expected to ease in January, with space availability improving meaningfully. Shippers should benefit from greater flexibility and longer booking lead times.

Market dynamics: December’s capacity tightness was temporary and driven by year-end volume surges. As demand moderates in January, airlines are better positioned to accommodate shipments without the congestion and booking pressure seen late last year.

North America to South America

Forecast: Capacity that was tight in December is expected to open up in January, improving booking flexibility. With demand softening after the holiday peak, the market should become more balanced, supporting stable to slightly declining rates.

Market dynamics: Holiday-related cargo surges drove December’s capacity challenges. As seasonal demand eases, airlines are returning to more normalized operations, with more consistent space offerings. The early-January slowdown reflects typical post-holiday shipping patterns to South American markets.

Temporary airspace restrictions in parts of the Caribbean because of geopolitical developments in Venezuela caused some flights to be rerouted in early January, with minimal lasting impact on capacity or rates.

Key takeaways

January presents a favorable environment for U.S. exporters, with open capacity and generally stable rates across most destinations. The easing of December constraints offers greater booking flexibility and potential rate relief. Shippers should take advantage of this window before any tightening later in the quarter.

Europe

The Trans-Atlantic air cargo market is settling into its typical post-holiday pattern as January begins. While demand has eased following peak season, conditions remain firmer than usual due to ongoing structural constraints. Limited freighter availability, including some widebody aircraft still out of rotation, is preventing rates from declining significantly—particularly for dedicated freighter space.

Regional highlights

Europe to North America

Forecast: Spot rates are expected to soften modestly following December’s surge, though declines will be limited by tight freighter availability. Contract rates should remain largely stable, with only minor downward adjustments. Overall capacity remains somewhat constrained, with steady passenger belly space but variable freighter availability as carriers rebalance networks post-peak.

Market dynamics: While spot rates typically ease in early January, limited freighter capacity and aircraft still out of rotation are keeping downward movement modest. Shippers continue to favor longer-term contracts following recent volatility, and carriers are prioritizing predictable block-space agreements. Temporary reductions in dedicated freighter availability are contributing to tighter-than-normal January conditions. Contract rates remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting sustained demand for fast, high-value shipments.

Key takeaways

Shippers moving cargo from Europe to the United States should expect relatively stable market conditions through January. While spot rates may soften slightly, capacity constraints will limit declines. Contract customers should see minimal change. Given the firmer-than-typical January environment, proactive planning remains important, particularly to avoid premium pricing on late bookings.

South America

The South American air freight market continues to see strong demand on routes to the United States and Mexico, with booking windows averaging three to six days. Spot rates are rising as peak season persists, though smaller shipments under 500 kilograms can still benefit from shorter lead times, particularly when booked as general cargo. Recent U.S. tariff suspensions on select agricultural products are expected to lift export volumes from Brazil, adding pressure to a capacity environment that had remained relatively stable during the shorter holiday month.

Regional highlights

South America to North America

Forecast: Demand is expected to remain strong through January, with the suspension of U.S. tariffs on some agricultural products likely to support increased exports from Brazil. This may tighten capacity and place upward pressure on rates. Booking windows are expected to remain in the three- to six-day range, with smaller shipments still able to secure faster departures.

Market dynamics: The tariff rollbacks are driving renewed trade flows from Brazil. While capacity stabilized following the holidays, rising demand is now pushing rates and lead times higher. Ongoing discussions around the Azul-Gol merger add uncertainty, as any structural changes could affect domestic connectivity and fleet strategy, though no immediate capacity expansion is anticipated.

South America to Europe

Forecast: General cargo volumes to Europe continue to rise, with rates trending higher on select lanes. The perishables season for mangoes, grapes, and other fruits is adding pressure on slot availability and increasing the need for temperature-controlled handling. New service from Recife (REC) to Porto (OPO) provides an alternative for northeast exporters and helps relieve congestion at São Paulo/Guarulhos (GRU).

Market dynamics: European demand for South American agricultural products remains strong. Some cargo traditionally destined for the United States was and continues to be redirected to Europe due to U.S. tariffs, intensifying competition for space. Lufthansa’s medium-sized aircraft operating round-trip service between Munich (MUC) and Rio de Janeiro (GIG) is providing incremental capacity relief.

The perishables season requires tightly coordinated cold-chain handling, limiting options and driving premium rates. Persistent operational constraints at GRU continue to elevate the appeal of alternative gateways such as Viracopos (VCP) and REC.

South America to SAMA

Forecast: Peak season conditions persist, with booking lead times exceeding two weeks for time-sensitive and high-value cargo. Fixed-rate programs continue to offer greater predictability. Ongoing Red Sea disruptions are diverting maritime volumes to air, sustaining pressure on Middle Eastern carriers and limiting available capacity.

Market dynamics: Extended booking windows reflect strong ecommerce demand alongside continued ocean-to-air shifts driven by Red Sea security concerns. Competition for limited space remains elevated, particularly among Middle Eastern carriers that function as key transshipment hubs and have limited flexibility without advance bookings.

Key takeaways

South American shippers should prioritize early planning and advance bookings, particularly on U.S.-bound lanes where tariff changes are increasing demand volatility. Fixed-rate contracts and space-guaranteed solutions can help mitigate rate escalation and capacity risk.

For South Asia and Middle East destinations, securing space early—especially under fixed-rate terms—is critical given two-week-plus lead times. Europe-bound perishables should be booked well in advance with carriers equipped to manage cold-chain requirements. Alternative gateways such as VCP and REC should be considered to bypass congestion at GRU, particularly for high-density or time-sensitive shipments.

Oceania

Air freight demand in Oceania has softened during the year-end holiday period, with both imports and exports experiencing seasonal slowdowns. Summer holiday schedules typically reduce cargo volumes from mid-December through mid-January. Capacity remains ample, supported by summer passenger services, resulting in stable to soft rate levels across most markets. Spot rates remain readily available for outbound cargo, providing flexibility for shippers.

Charter operations are intermittent, which can affect the movement of oversized or specialized cargo and may require more flexible scheduling. As businesses return to normal operations in mid-January, demand is expected to gradually recover.

Key takeaways

Shippers in Oceania should find favorable market conditions through mid-January, with ample capacity and softer rates. This presents an opportunity to move cargo at competitive levels, though shipments requiring charter or specialized handling should be planned further in advance due to intermittent availability. As the holiday period concludes, a gradual return to firmer rates and tighter capacity is expected later in the month.

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