USMCA review to dominate trade policy landscape in 2026

USMCA review update

Potentially the most important trade policy news this year will be the outcome of negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). In December, U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer briefed Congress on the administration's goals and positions heading into the six-year review of the trade deal.

While Greer did not explicitly commit to renewing the USMCA and indicated that the United States would negotiate aggressively during this process, the administration has indicated it favours nearshoring in North America over other alternatives. “The USMCA has been successful to a certain degree,” said Greer. “As you can see from the information we have received from interested stakeholders, there is broad support for the Agreement."

As negotiations progress toward a July 2026 decision, vigorous debate is expected on specific commodities, country-of-origin rules that determine the material basis for tariffs and trade diversion from countries outside the agreement.

For those seeking a deeper dive on the U.S. Trade Representative’s strategy, he published this op-ed.

Mexico implements new tariffs on Asian goods

Beginning 1 January 2026, Mexico imposed tariffs of 5%-50% on a wide range of goods to further incentivise nearshoring. Targeted products include automobiles, auto parts, steel, aluminium, plastics, textiles, footwear, furniture, toys, electronics and household appliances from various countries including China, India, South Korea and Thailand.

Notably, Chinese cars were assessed the maximum tariff of 50%. These measures were adopted to support the "Plan Mexico" goals of adding 350,000 jobs, reducing the trade deficit between China and Mexico and increasing Mexican content in goods by 15% by 2030.

Critics of the plan fear the tariffs will lead to inflation and supply chain disruptions. Others fear retaliatory tariffs on the robust Mexican export business to Southeast Asia, specifically the $9 billion in exports to China.

Canada increases steel tariffs

Canada implemented new steel tariffs, confirming a 50% surtax on certain steel goods from countries without trade agreements, effective 26 December 2025. Primary impacts will be on Chinese imports. This continues a global trend of targeting Chinese steel products to protect local markets from Chinese overproduction.

Tariff increases on furniture and cabinets postponed

The White House has delayed the Section 232 tariff increases on certain furniture and cabinets. Instead of starting on 1 January, 2026, the tariffs will now take effect on 1 January, 2027, when rates are to be raised from 25% to 30% for furniture and to 50% for cabinets and vanities. The White House stated that the delay is due to, “productive negotiations of agreements with multiple countries to address the threatened impairment of national security with respect to imports of wood products.”

Supreme Court tariff decision expected mid- to late January

After oral arguments took place last November, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on whether the administration has the right to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is now expected this month, possibly as early as Friday, 9 January, when the Court issues its first round of rulings for the new year.

The case pertains to reciprocal tariffs that have been imposed globally and tariffs imposed to stem the flow of fentanyl into the United States, but not to other commodity-specific or country-specific tariffs for which the president’s authority is more well-established.

If the Supreme Court rules against the administration, this may lead to refunds to importers. However, expectations for a quick refund process are increasingly low.

Mandatory ACH refund process begins 6 February

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced on 2 January, 2026, that all refunds for overpaid duties, taxes and fees, will be issued electronically via Automated Clearing House (ACH) instead of by check, with limited exceptions. To support the transition, CBP recently enhanced the refund sign-up process and released several new resources on managing ACH refund information. It is strongly recommended that importers sign up now, as CBP will not issue refunds by check after 5 February unless a waiver has been approved.

2026 Periodic Monthly Statement calendar published

On 29 December, 2025, CBP published the Periodic Monthly Statement dates for 2026. The programme allows importers to pay their duties, taxes and fees monthly instead of transaction by transaction for goods released in the prior month. Importers signing up for the free programme get several benefits, including the ability to pay as late as the 15th working day of the following month, helping to free up cash flow.

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