Healthier U.S. ports meet inland rail winter constraints

North America

U.S. port fluidity improves, rail constraints shape winter planning

U.S. container ports are operating at significantly healthier utilisation levels compared to the congestion crisis of 2021-2022, when major ports reached 90-95 per cent capacity and experienced severe operational disruption. Current utilisation has improved markedly, with Seattle-Tacoma at 55-60 per cent, Long Beach at 54 per cent, Charleston at 50 per cent and New York-New Jersey at 65 per cent.

Warehouses are flowing more smoothly, avoiding the storage bottlenecks that compounded earlier congestion. These improvements are largely driven by better data-sharing practices among ports, ocean carriers and logistics partners, enabling more co-ordinated operations and earlier identification of potential issues.

Despite these gains, operational challenges remain. Equipment shortages persist at inland rail locations, driven by reduced import volumes that limit container availability for exports. Canadian ports have improved from earlier congestion but continue to face railcar shortages. These are expected to persist through winter as both Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) operate under winter plans that include shorter train lengths and speed restrictions.

Regional highlights

U.S. Central

Forecast: Inland rail locations across the central United States are expected to face continued equipment shortages through January due to lower import volumes. Transit times could improve in 2027 if the proposed Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) joint service receives regulatory approval, though implementation is not expected before then.

Market dynamics: Equipment shortages reflect an imbalance between imports and exports—fewer imports mean fewer empty containers available inland for export loads. This creates challenges for shippers moving cargo from central U.S. origins to ports.

The proposed UP-NS joint service would create the first continuous coast-to-coast rail network under a single operator, potentially reducing dwell times at hubs such as Chicago and improving long-term transit reliability. In addition, BNSF Railway and CSX Transportation plan upgrades across seven cross-country routes, aiming to reduce interchanges and support future capacity improvements.

U.S. East Coast

Forecast: East Coast ports—including New York-New Jersey, Charleston, Philadelphia and Baltimore—are expected to maintain stable operations through January. Utilisation remains healthy, with New York-New Jersey at 65 per cent and Charleston at 50 per cent. Equipment shortages persist at inland rail locations. For Oceania-bound cargo requiring brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) fumigation, Philadelphia and Baltimore remain the most viable East Coast options, as New York currently lacks approved fumigators.

Market dynamics: Strong co-ordination and data-sharing across East Coast ports and supply chain partners have helped prevent a return to the congestion seen in 2021-2022. Lower utilisation allows ports to absorb volume fluctuations without operational strain. BMSB regulations, effective 1 September 2025 (based on vessel onboard date), require cargo to be fumigated at origin. With no approved fumigators in New York, shippers must plan alternative routings or inland fumigation, adding complexity and potential cost.

U.S. Gulf Coast

Forecast: Gulf Coast ports, particularly Houston, are expected to operate steadily through January, though capacity remains tighter than at East Coast origins. Houston’s export-heavy profile—especially for resin—continues to place sustained pressure on space.

Market dynamics: Limited import volumes intensify competition for export capacity. High volumes of resin and other container-intensive commodities further constrain available space, making Gulf Coast conditions tighter relative to other U.S. regions.

U.S. West Coast

Forecast: Seattle-Tacoma and Long Beach are expected to remain fluid through January, supported by healthy utilisation levels. Equipment shortages at inland rail locations may create localised challenges for cargo requiring rail movement. Export space remains moderately tight due to structural blank sailings, though overall port operations should stay stable.

Market dynamics: Improved performance reflects lower import volumes compared to peak periods and stronger co-ordination among ports, carriers and logistics providers. With Seattle-Tacoma at 55-60 per cent utilisation and Long Beach at 54 per cent—well below the 85 per cent congestion threshold—both ports retain operational buffer. However, inland equipment shortages can still delay export cargo, creating mismatches between ready freight and container availability.

Canada

Forecast: Canadian port congestion has eased, but railcar shortages are expected to persist through winter. Vancouver remains operational despite recent flooding and road closures, while Montreal continues to face challenges from exceptionally low water levels. Winter weather will affect port, rail and trucking operations, with shorter trains and speed restrictions reducing capacity and potentially extending transit times.

Market dynamics: Railcar shortages stem from cold-weather operating constraints, as extreme temperatures affect safety and equipment reliability. CN and CPKC implement winter strategies each year—including shorter trains and speed restrictions—to maintain service continuity. While necessary, these measures reduce capacity and can increase terminal dwell times, particularly during periods of snow, ice or extreme cold.

• Port of Montreal: Low water levels continue to constrain operations; rail capacity is limited and may affect container availability.
• Port of Vancouver: Operations remain stable; west coast rail approvals still require planning due to seasonal demand.
• St. John and Halifax: Rail and terminal capacity constraints persist, with elevated dwell times in some locations.
• Toronto: Service remains reliable with short container dwell times.

Key takeaways

U.S. shippers benefit from generally healthy port operations but should plan proactively around inland equipment shortages. Strategies include exploring street-turn opportunities, reviewing weekly equipment availability across carriers, checking alternative rail loading points or trucking directly to port when rail options are constrained.

For U.S. East Coast (USEC) deliveries to Oceania requiring BMSB fumigation, route via Philadelphia or Baltimore rather than New York. Gulf Coast exporters—particularly resin shippers—should book early to secure space. Canadian shippers should allow additional time for winter-related delays and railcar shortages.

Montreal’s low water situation warrants close monitoring, as further deterioration could affect vessel operations and trigger additional surcharges; shippers should confirm carrier-specific fee application when planning.

Europe

European ports continue to face significant operational challenges that are affecting the broader supply chain. Congestion remains pronounced at major gateways such as Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam, where container and chassis shortages in the hinterland are compounding delays. These issues are driven by congestion trapping equipment at ports and inland locations, combined with a shortage of available truck drivers to reposition containers efficiently.

Regional highlights

Northern Europe

Forecast: Congestion at Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam is expected to persist through January, with continued delays for inland cargo movements. Recent strikes in Belgium may further disrupt operations at Antwerp.

Market dynamics: Congestion in Northern Europe creates ripple effects across supply chains. Delayed vessel arrivals disrupt rotation schedules, while containers and chassis become trapped inland, limiting the return flow of equipment to ports. Truck driver shortages exacerbate these challenges, further constraining outbound capacity. Belgian labour actions have added pressure to an already tight environment, with backlogues expected to take time to clear.

Key takeaways

Shippers moving cargo through Northern European ports should plan for schedule variability and potential delays, particularly for inland moves. Building additional buffer time into supply chain plans and maintaining flexible routeing options will help to mitigate risk. Ongoing communication with carriers and inland transport providers is essential to manage expectations and adjust plans as conditions evolve.

South America

South American port and drayage operations are generally performing well at major gateways, though conditions vary by location. On Brazil’s East Coast, utilisation ranges from 57 per cent at Fortaleza to 92 per cent at Rio de Janeiro, reflecting uneven terminal pressure across the region. On the West Coast, ports in Chile, Colombia and Peru remain largely stable, though Pacific swell and other weather-related factors can temporarily disrupt vessel schedules, berth availability and crane productivity.

Regional highlights

South America East Coast

Forecast: Most major Brazilian ports are expected to maintain regular to good performance through January. Santos and Rio Grande continue to lead in reliability with minimal vessel waiting times. Itapoá, Paranaguá and Rio de Janeiro face sustained terminal pressure, while Itajaí remains severely congested with limited vessel calls. Weather will remain a key variable and refrigerated equipment demand will stay elevated at Fortaleza during peak fruit season.

Market dynamics: Strong agricultural export demand is driving high throughput. Utilisation ranges from moderate at Fortaleza (57 per cent) to high at Rio de Janeiro (92 per cent), directly influencing vessel queues and truck turn times. Santos and Rio Grande remain the most reliable options, while Imbituba and Navegantes serve as effective overflow gateways. Shifts in cargo mix—such as Vitória’s move from tiles to coffee—are changing equipment requirements. Manaus currently benefits from the suspended low water surcharge, though river levels should be monitored closely.

South America West Coast

Forecast: Ports across Chile, Colombia and Peru are expected to remain generally stable through January, with weather as the primary operational variable. Callao maintains strong berth productivity, though landside congestion persists during peak refrigerated export periods.

Market dynamics: Pacific swell remains an unpredictable disruption risk, particularly at San Antonio and Valparaíso, where vessels may wait offshore or experience temporary crane stoppages. Callao’s truck appointment constraints can result in one- to two-hour waits during peak periods. Colombian ports continue to operate reliably, with most delays linked to upstream network adjustments rather than local congestion.

Key takeaways

Brazilian shippers should prioritise Santos and Rio Grande for reliability and avoid Itajaí due to severe congestion. Build three to five days of buffer time at high-utilisation ports such as Rio de Janeiro and Paranaguá and develop weather contingencies. Fortaleza offers strong capacity for refrigerated exports during the January-March fruit season. Manaus shippers should monitor river levels monthly through 2026.

West Coast shippers should track Pacific swell forecasts issued 48-72 hours in advance. Callao exporters moving refrigerated cargo should secure truck appointments at least 24 hours ahead, while Chile-based shippers should confirm reefer plug availability at least one week prior during high season.

Oceania

Oceania port and drayage operations are experiencing localised equipment positioning challenges as carriers manage post-peak repositioning. Overall terminal performance remains stable, with equipment availability actively managed to maintain service continuity through the first quarter of 2026.

Regional highlights

Australia

Forecast: Adelaide faces short-term tightness on 20-feet containers due to repositioning constraints, with improvement expected as flows normalise. Fremantle continues to experience 20-feet dry container shortages through the first quarter of 2026. Brisbane maintains strong access to both space and equipment, making it a reliable export gateway.

Market dynamics: Equipment constraints in Adelaide and Fremantle reflect post-peak repositioning patterns. Adelaide’s tightness is expected to be temporary, while Fremantle’s shortages are more structural, driven by limited imports relative to export demand. Brisbane’s balanced equipment position provides a practical alternative for shippers with flexible origins.

Key takeaways

Oceania shippers should prioritise Brisbane where possible due to superior equipment availability and operational performance. Adelaide exporters should confirm depot availability early for 20-feet containers, while Fremantle shippers should plan well in advance and consider alternative equipment or routings when feasible.

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