Regulatory shifts and port congestion strain global drayage

Asia

Global trends

Asian transshipment hubs are facing significant congestion, creating cascading delays and tightening capacity across multiple trade lanes. Colombo remains under strain as India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions disrupt cargo routeing. Higher cargo volumes are putting greater pressure on hubs serving Southeast Asia, leading to more congestion than on North Asia services.

Middle Eastern transshipment gateways handling Asia-origin cargo are also heavily congested, with Red Sea diversions continuing to force rerouting and extend transit times.

Regional highlights

Southeast Asia

Forecast: Ongoing transshipment hub congestion is expected to sustain tighter capacity for Southeast Asia routes.

Market dynamics: Heavy congestion at key Asian transshipment hubs is significantly constraining space for Southeast Asia-bound cargo. The region’s hub-and-spoke network relies on multiple transshipment connections and delays at these hubs are reducing effective capacity. This limits how much cargo can actually move on schedule and extends transit times to final Southeast Asian ports.

Key takeaways

For Southeast Asia destinations, expect tighter capacity than North Asia. Plan deliveries early and consider alternative routings to minimise potential delays.

North America

Global trends

North American port and drayage operations are experiencing a convergence of regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure constraints and capacity pressures. Port congestion continues to absorb roughly 7.2% of global capacity, down from 8.2% last month, with the greatest challenges at key U.S. ports and transshipment hubs.

Drayage operations face uncertainty following the D.C. Court of Appeals’ partial overturn of the Federal Maritime Commission’s February 2024 ruling on demurrage and detention charges. The U.S. government shutdown beginning 1 October has paused regulatory action, leaving the industry without clear guidance. This lack of clarity is fuelling billing disputes and contractual confusion, as ocean carriers resume charging motor carriers directly for demurrage and per diem fees.

Driver capacity is under increasing pressure due to strict enforcement of English Language Proficiency and new Commercial Driver’s Licence (CDL) standards, which have a larger impact on regional dray networks than the national average. The U.S. Department of Transportation has ordered California to stop issuing and renewing CDLs to drivers who don’t live there and given the state 30 days to comply.

Other states face the same 30-day deadline to meet federal requirements or risk losing funding. While the market currently has ample drivers, strict enforcement could significantly reduce drayage capacity over time.

Infrastructure constraints are also affecting operations. Key issues include terminal dredging delays along the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) and facility changes, which are limiting throughput and affecting overall schedule reliability.

Regional highlights

U.S. Central

Forecast: Congestion at Norfolk Southern’s Sharonville ramp in Cincinnati is expected to worsen this month as the railroad continues redirecting container volumes from nearby terminals. Carriers are likely to maintain or raise surcharges for Sharonville deliveries and longer wait times are anticipated during peak periods.

Market dynamics: The Sharonville change is part of a broader network realignment aimed at consolidating operations and improving efficiency across Norfolk Southern’s Midwest terminals. However, the shift has created operational bottlenecks.

Despite infrastructure improvements—including additional stacked rows and new truck lanes—the largely unpaved facility and staffing shortages are limiting throughput. Local restrictions preventing trucks from queuing on public roads further constrain access during peak periods, slowing turn times and increasing congestion.

Several drayage carriers have implemented flat surcharges for Sharonville deliveries and extra fees for after-hours dispatches. Extended wait times are also increasing detention exposure for shippers. Limited visibility exacerbates the challenge, as Norfolk Southern’s tracking metrics only record trucks once containers are being lifted, not while trucks wait outside the terminal.

U.S. Gulf

Forecast: The Port of Houston is expected to remain capacity-constrained, with ongoing booking challenges and strong competition for limited space. USGC exports—especially to Europe—will continue facing tight conditions through the month.

Market dynamics: The imbalance between demand and available service is being driven by unresolved infrastructure limitations, most notably a dredging issue at Mediterranean Delivery Company (MSC)’s Houston terminal. The project remains suspended due to the federal government shutdown, restricting vessel draught depth and limiting berthing efficiency.

As a result, MSC has reduced booking acceptance, adjusted vessel loading plans and implemented a November general rate increase (GRI) to offset these constraints. These factors are tightening space and reinforcing Houston’s position as the most capacity-restricted origin on USGC routes.

U.S. West

Forecast: Driver availability is expected to tighten this month, particularly in Southern California, where ports remain most vulnerable to capacity reductions if federal enforcement efforts intensify. While drayage capacity is currently sufficient, any surge in demand could quickly lead to shortages.

Market dynamics: Intensified enforcement of English Language Proficiency and new CDL standards, with confusion over inconsistent application of rules across states, is prompting some drivers to reconsider routes. States include California, Texas, Tennessee, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico and Washington. Some states even face deadlines to enforce these requirements, with potential penalties if non-compliance persists.

Combined with rising wages, insurance and equipment costs, these regulations are contributing to small trucking firm closures, further reducing available drivers. While capacity is currently sufficient, the cumulative effect of regulatory enforcement and operational pressures leaves certain ports—especially in Southern California—at risk if freight volumes increase.

Canada

Forecast: Elevated dwell times are expected to continue through year end, especially at West Coast terminals. Railcar shortages will keep limiting the availability of expedited rail services and low-water service fees in Montreal remain in effect.

Market dynamics: Canadian ports and terminals continue to face elevated congestion, driven by high import volumes and ongoing railcar shortages. West Coast terminals remain the most affected, with dwell times averaging around 10 days at Prince Rupert and Vancouver, six days at Centerm and four days at Delta.

These delays are limiting availability for expedited rail service, forcing shippers to rely on standard rail service with longer inland transit times. East Coast terminals are performing more efficiently, with Toronto at one-to-two days, Montreal at approximately five days, Saint John at four days and Halifax improving.

At Montreal, low water levels from an exceptionally dry summer are still affecting vessel operations. Carriers have maintained low-water service fees and continued low water could further affect vessel draught and loading capacity. An administrative strike at Montreal Gateway Terminals is ongoing, but operations are largely maintained with minor schedule adjustments.

Mexico

Forecast: Congestion at the Port of Manzanillo is expected to affect loading operations and vessel schedules through the remainder of the year.

Market dynamics: Terminal congestion at Manzanillo is disrupting both South America transshipment flows and local Mexican exports. Elevated cargo volumes, vessel bunching and infrastructure constraints are limiting operational efficiency and increasing the risk of delays in cargo movement. These bottlenecks are tightening space availability and creating scheduling challenges for shippers.

Key takeaways

Shippers should closely monitor regulatory enforcement developments in California, New Mexico, Washington and other high-enforcement states including Texas, Tennessee, Wyoming and Arizona, as strict implementation could reduce the available driver pool. Capacity may tighten if freight demand increases while driver availability declines, making early drayage planning critical.

At the Sharonville ramp in Cincinnati, allow extra time for pickups and deliveries and expect higher carrier surcharges, including after-hours fees and increased detention charges. For USGC deliveries, particularly through Houston, provide advanced volume forecasts and build in additional lead time due to dredging issues affecting terminal operations.

For USWC operations, watch driver enforcement trends that could reduce available capacity. Finally, plan for ongoing congestion at the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico, which continues to affect loading operations and vessel schedules.

For Canadian operations, expect elevated dwell times, particularly at West Coast terminals. Request expedited rail service early, as carriers continue denying requests due to high West Coast dwell times. Factor in Montreal's low-water service fee for cargo from Europe and South America and monitor for potential vessel impacts if water levels don’t improve.

Europe

Global trends

Ongoing congestion at European ports has become a structural constraint, signalling deeper capacity limitations rather than short-term operational delays. Port congestion continues to absorb a significant portion of available capacity, with vessel wait times ranging from two to eight days at major northern European gateways.

Recent labour strikes at Antwerp and Rotterdam have compounded delays and although these strikes have ended or been temporarily suspended, the resulting backlogues continue to affect operations.

Mediterranean ports are also facing ongoing congestion. These challenges are straining network balance globally, as carriers reposition vessels and adjust rotations, affecting schedule reliability on Asia-Europe and Trans-Atlantic services. Carriers are omitting some port calls and rerouting vessels to maintain schedules, adding uncertainty for shippers relying on specific port pairs.

Regional highlights

Northern Europe

Forecast: Port congestion is expected to remain a structural issue through the end of the year, with vessel wait times of two to eight days at major northern European ports. Schedule reliability will continue to be challenged.

Market dynamics: Heavy congestion at northern European gateways— like Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg and Bremerhaven—has been driven by a combination of labour disruptions, infrastructure strain and schedule imbalances. Lingering backlogues from earlier vessel bunching, coupled with limited yard space and slower container turnover, are reducing effective capacity and slowing port operations.

Recent labour strikes have further worsened delays, prompting carriers to omit port calls or reroute vessels to maintain schedules. With port productivity still recovering and infrastructure upgrades lagging demand, congestion and capacity restrictions are expected to persist.

Mediterranean

Forecast: Congestion across major ports is projected to continue, with vessels facing delays of three to seven days. Limited berth capacity and vessel scheduling imbalances will keep schedule reliability low for both inbound and transshipment cargo flows.

Market dynamics: Congestion at key Mediterranean hubs such as Piraeus, Genoa and Valencia has intensified as carriers redirect vessels from northern European ports and consolidate transshipment activity. Limited berth space and extended dwell times for import containers are straining terminal operations, creating downstream ripple effects that disrupt schedules and reduce effective capacity across connected trade lanes.

Key takeaways

For European-bound cargo, anticipate vessel delays of two to eight days at major northern European ports. Prepare for potential port omissions or rerouting by carriers. Provide advanced volume forecasts to secure space and allow for additional transit time.

Mediterranean ports are also experiencing vessel wait times of three to seven days, affecting both direct calls and transshipment connections. This congestion is expected to persist through the end of the year, so plan with longer lead times and flexible routeing options.

South Asia, Middle East, Africa

Global trends

Severe congestion at South Asian and Middle Eastern transshipment hubs is disrupting regional connectivity and slowing global cargo flows. Colombo remains under significant pressure as India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions alter routeing patterns, while Middle Eastern hubs are overwhelmed by the surge in Asia-originating cargo rerouted around the Red Sea. These combined factors are creating widespread schedule disruptions and capacity imbalances across multiple trade lanes.

Regional highlights

Indian Subcontinent

Forecast: Transshipment hub congestion is projected to remain elevated through the month, with Colombo under the greatest strain.

Market dynamics: Colombo is experiencing heightened congestion due to a combination of geopolitical and operational factors. India-Pakistan tensions prevent Pakistani cargo from transiting through India, forcing a significant portion to reroute via Colombo.

At the same time, deliveries from South Indian ports—including Chennai, Bangalore and Cochin—also depend on Colombo for transshipment. The resulting concentration of cargo at the hub is straining capacity, reducing available space and creating unpredictable schedules for Southeast Asia-bound deliveries.

Middle East

Forecast: Transshipment hub congestion is expected to persist, with delays of three to seven days at major hubs.

Market dynamics: Middle Eastern transshipment hubs, including Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi and Mundra, are facing severe congestion due to ongoing Red Sea disruptions. These disruptions are forcing cargo onto alternative routes that pass through these hubs, concentrating volumes and straining capacity. As a result, delays are cascading across multiple trade lanes, reducing schedule reliability and limiting effective space for deliveries.

Key takeaways

For Indian subcontinent cargo, consider booking three to four weeks in advance to navigate erratic schedules. Middle Eastern transshipment hubs will remain severely congested due to Red Sea diversions. Shippers should factor these transshipment delays into planning to ensure timely delivery to final destinations.

South America

Global trends

Port operations across South and Central America are showing varied conditions. In Brazil, major gateways, including Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Paranaguá and Itapoá, remain highly congested, operating at 80-92% terminal utilisation. The ongoing sugar export season is intensifying pressure on equipment, particularly 20-feet containers, limiting operational flexibility and increasing potential delays.

Colombia, Cartagena on the Atlantic coast is demonstrating notable improvements, emerging as a more reliable hub for cargo bound for the U.S., Brazil and Europe. In contrast, Buenaventura on the Pacific coast continues to face operational challenges, with ongoing civil works and construction projects causing congestion and slowing vessel turn times.

Kingston, Jamaica—a critical Caribbean transshipment hub—is recovering from Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm that made landfall on 29 October as one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.

While Kingston's port infrastructure experienced minimal damage and Kingston Wharves Limited resumed operations on 30 October, the broader impact includes temporary port closures, cruise ship rerouting and widespread infrastructure damage across western Jamaica. These disruptions are creating short-term cascading effects across Caribbean and USEC trade lanes, with recovery efforts under way to restore full operational capacity.

Regional highlights

South America East Coast (SAEC)

Forecast: Port congestion will persist through year end, with limited space and 20-feet container shortages during the sugar export season. Cartagena’s Atlantic coast operations are improving for origin cargo, though transshipment congestion continues.

Market dynamics: High demand during Brazil’s sugar export season is placing pressure on major gateways like Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Paranaguá and Itapoá, while limited availability of 20-feet containers and busy terminal operations are further constraining capacity.

Meanwhile, Cartagena is becoming a more reliable hub for cargo bound for the U.S., Brazil and Europe. This shift is partly driven by ZIM relocating its main transshipment hub from Kingston, Jamaica, to Cartagena, which is increasing cargo volumes at the port and contributing to transshipment congestion, reducing schedule reliability for connecting deliveries.

South America West Coast (SAWC)

Forecast: Peru, Chile and Buenaventura, Colombia, will face heightened operational challenges due to adverse weather conditions, civil works and the fruit export season. Carrier schedule reliability will be affected by cut-and-run operations.

Market dynamics: Several carriers, including CMA CGM, COSCO and Maersk, are facing schedule disruptions as they implement cut-and-run operations to recover lost time and contend with adverse weather conditions in Chile.

Operational efficiency at Buenaventura remains low due to ongoing civil works both inside and outside the terminal, causing significant congestion and vessel delays. Some carriers have temporarily paused bookings.

Meanwhile, Peru and Chile are entering their peak fruit export season, driving a surge in demand for container space and intensifying competition for available vessel slots across the region.

Key takeaways

At Brazilian ports, including Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Paranaguá and Itapoá, expect congestion and plan for additional dwell time. Consider alternative gateways such as Imbituba, Suape, Pecém, Salvador or Fortaleza, where utilisation is lower and operations are more fluid. Monitor equipment availability closely, particularly 20-feet containers during the sugar season and adjust booking strategies accordingly. For Rio de Janeiro, note the port’s focus on supporting exports with special equipment options for dry and project cargo.

In Colombia, consider using Cartagena on the Atlantic coast as a reliable origin for cargo bound for the U.S., Brazil and Europe, leveraging recent operational improvements and new carrier services. Be aware that transshipment operations at Cartagena remain congested. Avoid Buenaventura on the Pacific coast, when possible, as ongoing civil works continue to cause operational challenges and delays.

For Peru and Chile, plan well in advance for the Q4 fruit export season, as high demand will tighten vessel capacity.

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